Erdogan’s centennial dream

by Yelena Osipova

Published: Thursday December 17, 2009

Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, right, at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University in Washington, Dec. 7, 2009. With him is moderator Daniel Hamilton. Elena Osipova

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Washington - The agenda of Turkish prime minister's visit to Washington last week was clear way in advance.

It was not going to be about Turkey's relations with Armenia, or Israel for that matter, despite the wishful thinking of some. Rather, it was going to focus on Turkey's increasingly assertive foreign policy and America's topics of the day: Afghanistan and Iran.

Of course, we do not know what exactly went on during the private two-hour-long discussion that President Barack Obama had with Recep Tayyip Erdogan; but from what the "unnamed officials" are telling the media, the disagreements are still there: Mr. Erdogan refuses to commit combat troops to Afghanistan, he is opposed to sanctions against Iran, and he is still bothered - profoundly - by what happened last winter in Gaza.

Talking at the Trans-Atlantic Leaders' Forum at Johns Hopkins University, after the official part of the day, Mr. Erdogan gave himself another pat on the back, calling for more understanding of his government, and praising the longstanding American-Turkish relationship.

Mark Lynch, scholar of Middle East politics at George Washington University, wrote in his Foreign Policy blog, "There is probably no more interesting figure in the Middle East diplomacy these days."

I tend to agree with the professor. Mr. Erdogan is trying to live up to this characterization, learning from the West and gradually realizing that often perceptions matter more than deeds.

I am not sure there was the need for a show this time, though. Mr. Obama himself hailed Turkey as "a great country" and stressed he is "strongly committed to creating the best possible relationship between Turkey and the United States."

However, did he have an alternative, given the attempts to leave Afghanistan and Iraq while saving face, and given the strong desire to stay out of Iran as much as possible?

Not only has Mr. Erdogan capitalized greatly on the geostrategic importance of Turkey's location and relations developed over the past 50 years, but he has also successfully positioned himself and his government in the center of East-West relations.

Dismissing accusations of Islamism inherent in his party, Mr. Erdogan seems to have internalized "democracy-speak" very well, and Americans certainly like that.

With Spain, Turkey has been a co-sponsor of the Alliance of Civilizations launched in the framework of the United Nations in 2005, making a conspicuous show of good will in taking up a greater role in mediation and international diplomacy.

In recent years, Turkey has mediated or attempted to mediate between Syria and Israel, Russia and Georgia, various Lebanese and Iraqi factions, and even Serbia and Bosnia, while having improved relations with Russia, Greece, Iran, and Syria.

Mr. Erdogan's university speech underscored the value he gives to strengthening Turkey's position. Just as throughout the past year, he once again criticized Israel's actions in Gaza - particularly the use of the phosphorus bombs - by appealing to what he called "humanist" values, and at least trying to demonstrate impartiality, openness, and a desire for justice. He did not say, however, to what extent he adheres to these values when dealing with the Kurdish guerillas, for instance.

He did not shy away from talking about Turkey's expanding relations with Russia and Iran - not the two most popular states in Washington.

He even defended Iran's right to have a "peaceful nuclear program" and called on the West to "practice what they preach," openly criticizing the U.S. attitude toward Israel's own nuclear arsenal.

Turkey has long been a disliked and distrusted actor in the region, given the history, as well as its close ties with the United States and Israel. Being effectively rejected by the European Union, increasingly recognizing the further potential benefits Turkey can reap thanks to its location, and playing on his strong popularity at home, Mr. Erdogan has set out to truly achieve his "360-degree look at the world."

And again, he took a swipe at "some people who are unhappy [and] envious of Turkey's position" and achievements in the region, and who are "trying to disrupt the process."

Still, he emphasized his desire, yet again, for Turkey to join the EU and be recognized as a secular, democratic, and prosperous state.

He was not modest in stating his objectives for 2023, the centennial of the Kemalist Republic: to be one of the top 10 economies in the world, and to be a major agenda-setter in global affairs.

Although he claimed there can be no "shift" in Turkey's foreign policy focus because of its inherently diverse nature, the West is getting increasingly wary of the more independent path Mr. Erdogan is pursuing.

But given the key role Turkey has come to play in the region in all respects – be it military, economic, or political – Turkey's 2023 goals appear to be quite reasonable.